Thang điểm HEARTRISK6 trong dự đoán biến cố nghiêm trọng ngắn hạn ở bệnh nhân suy tim cấp nhập viện

Abstract

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a leading cause of hospitalization and is associated with a high risk of adverse outcomes. This study aimed to determine the incidence of serious short-term outcomes (SSO) and evaluate the predictive performance of the HEARTRISK6 score in hospitalized patients with AHF. In this retrospective–prospective cohort study, 160 consecutive patients admitted with AHF were enrolled. SSO was defined as a composite of 30-day mortality, respiratory failure requiring ventilatory support, myocardial infarction, or unplanned readmission within 14 days. Discrimination was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and the Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. SSO occurred in 19 patients (11.9%). The HEARTRISK6 score demonstrated moderate discriminative ability, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.76 (95% CI: 0.65 – 0.87). A cutoff value of ≥ 5 provided a sensitivity of 63.2%, specificity of 85.1%, and negative predictive value of 94.5%. The model showed good calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow p = 0.55). The HEARTRISK6 score may be useful for predicting SSO in patients hospitalized with acute heart failure.