Prognostic value of the HOPE-EVL score for mortality in patients with acute esophageal variceal bleeding treated with endoscopic variceal ligation
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Abstract
Endoscopic variceal ligation (EVL) is the preferred treatment for controlling acute bleeding and preventing bleeding recurrence in patients with acute variceal bleeding; early prognostic assessment after EVL helps stratify risk and guide appropriate management. This retrospective–prospective cohort study was conducted on 213 patients with acute esophageal variceal bleeding who underwent EVL at the Digestive & Hepatobiliary Center, Bach Mai Hospital, to evaluate the prognostic value of the HOPE-EVL score for 30-day mortality after EVL. The 30-day mortality rate after EVL was 12.2%. The HOPE-EVL score was significantly associated with clinical characteristics and treatment outcomes. There was a marked difference in 30-day mortality across HOPE-EVL risk groups, ranging from 1.3% in the low-risk group to 80% in the high-risk group. The HOPE-EVL score demonstrated excellent prognostic performance for 30-day mortality, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.909 – 0.988; p < 0.05). These findings suggest that the HOPE-EVL score has value in predicting 30-day mortality in patients with portal hypertension–related gastrointestinal bleeding after EVL.
Article Details
Keywords
HOPE-EVL, acute variceal bleeding, esophageal varices, cirrhosis
References
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